Happy Market Update! |
This one is running late. We’ve had a lot of information coming out…and I had to sit at the DMV this week. I won’t even get into that…well, I will tell you that I overheard someone say someone was on break. At 9:45am. AM. They had only been open for less than 90 minutes! The person who helped me had a sign that said her position was Chaos Coordinator. I said, is that really your title? (making a joke) She said, oh yeah. Look behind you. I did…there were a lot of people…all quiet, facing one direction, not losing their sh&t…this is what you think chaos is? A lot of people waiting patiently? Let me show you a live shot of the mortgage world: |
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That’s our chaos coordinator with the office right behind. Since it’s late, let’s just get right to it…
Inflation numbers were out this week. This first chart is your CPI…consumer price index. Yep...that is moving up. Weird thing is that the markets seemed to like it. That is a year over year at 2.9%...just shy of 3%. The month over month was “only” increasing by 0.2% rather than the forecast of 0.3%. Yippy. I will say this…if we get any 3 handle on year over year in Feb or Mar…look out! I guess call your local Fed President and thank them for the great job they are doing. How do you find them? Check the steakhouses for guys spending your money while drinking brandy. |
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Here is another look at the CPI increasing…along with hourly and weekly earnings moving up. This is a huge part of inflation. |
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There was some good news the markets did not like. PPI or producer price index. This is the cost of goods given to you by prices in the future. That is a 0. That’s what I’m talking about! Interest rates? They went up instead of down this day. Chaos coordinator need apply. |
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From our friends at Apollo…this chart shows our long rates have disconnected from short rates recently. Tell me something I don’t know. I’m hoping these short term rates can pull the long ones down versus the other way around. Only time will tell. |
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This one from JP Morgan comes from our friends at MorganRosel. (Thanks, Eric!) This one is more about you as a consumer and your confidence in the economy. Still not up to average, but this chart indicates we are still moving up after a slight move down in the fall. Remember this as student loans come due….again. |
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Okay, here is the “our government at work segment”, back by popular demand. No, I didn’t choose to pick on CA…they have enough issues right now. Let’s go for the FDA! It’s nice that we are already seeing some changes in the food. I’d be afraid of RFK Jr too. I think the worst part of this is that the FDA will give food manufacturers until 2027 to figure it out. So keep on getting cancer. Why would you want them to lose money in the short term? Shame on you! |
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There was one more other item about the government that seemed big that I was trying to remember. Man…what is it. Oh well, maybe next week I’ll remember. Oh wait! Administration change over! So 3 president’s will not attend Trump’s lunch…Clinton, Bush, and Obama. Listen, you don’t have to like Trump…but this screams elitism. Below snip it from NBC News. Did it ever occur to them that this attitude might be why he got elected a second time? |
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10yr: Finally a move down! This week saw the highest levels since October 2023…and then we moved down. Will that trend continue? We shall see…for now, we will take what we can get. Rates are still up…but not as high as Oct 23. For now. |
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MBS: (Reminder, up means lower rates) Again a favorable move for the rates! For now. We did not manage to stay above the 20 day moving average (blue line)…but maybe we can back up there Tuesday. Strong move to the upside this week, though. |
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Keep in mind that Martin Luther King Jr day is Monday. Stop and appreciate what you have. He was a champion for all. That same day we will get a new president…and we will see what the markets do from there…with 4 years of a Republican House, Senate, and Presidency. It should be interesting. Maybe DOGE can come in and help clean up the people on break an hour into their day? That would be….awesome! Meanwhile, pray for the people in CA and pray for most of the eastern side of the country that will be in a deep freeze. I’m thinking about you all. Prayers all the way around. While we have our differences, we are in this together. So let’s figure it out. Dr King would have wanted that way.
What does not kill you makes you stronger. |
Tim |
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